Poll: National still on top, Labour dips again

The National Party is still on top in the latest 1News Kantar Public Poll, while Labour has had a further drop.

National is steady on 39%, while Labour has fallen by 2 to 35%. The Greens have risen by 1 to 10%, and ACT has gone down 1 to 7%.

Labour leader and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has seen her preferred PM rating slip slightly in today’s poll – still ahead of the pack but now only 8% in front of National party leader Christopher Luxon.

Party support

National: 39% (steady)

Labour: 35% (down 2)

Green Party: 10% (up 1)

ACT: 7% (down 1)

Te Pāti Māori: 2% (steady)

The Opportunities Party (TOP): 2% (up 1)

New Zealand First: 1% (down 1)

New Conservative: 1% (steady)

Don’t know/refused: 11%

Translated into seats in Parliament, the party support result would give National 51 seats and ACT 9, a combined total of 60. Labour would have 45, the Greens 13, a total of 58. If Te Pāti Māori with 2 seats joined them, those 3 parties would also have a total of 60. If it joined National and ACT, they would have 62 altogether.

Parliamentary seats based on poll results

National Party: 51

Labour Party: 45

Green Party: 13

ACT Party: 9

Te Pāti Māori: 2

TOTAL: 120

Those results put Te Pāti Māori at the centre of building a Government, with co-leader Rawiri Waititi telling 1News they “want to come up with a process with the major parties that’s more Te Tiriti-centric”.

“If I take the analogy of a wharenui, you’ve got two maihi on the wharenui, and the koruru being the carved figure in the middle, hopefully Te Pāti Māori can be that figure and advocate for our people from there.”

He has previously told 1News that they will not go with any party not committed to constitutional transformation or a Tiriti-centric Aotearoa. National under previous leader Judith Collins did not meet that requirement, he said, and he hadn’t “seen much change since Christopher Luxon”.

In the previous poll in March, National overtook Labour for the first time since the pandemic, Labour dipping to its lowest result since 2017.

Preferred PM

Jacinda Ardern: 33% (down 1)

Christopher Luxon: 25% (steady)

David Seymour: 3% (down 2)

Chlöe Swarbrick: 2% (up 1)

Winston Peters: 1% (down 1)

Don’t know: 28% (up 1)

None/refused: 2% (steady)

Luxon’s 25% rating is the highest preferred PM result for a National leader since former Prime Minister Sir Bill English. Ardern has dropped to her lowest preferred PM result since before she became Prime Minister.

Composite image of Christopher Luxon and Jacinda Ardern.
Composite image of Christopher Luxon and Jacinda Ardern. (Source: rnz.co.nz)

The poll was conducted between May 21-25, beginning just after Budget 2022 and the climate plan was released.

Speaking from the US, Ardern said the result was “a reflection of the really tough time New Zealanders are in, and we have been really open about the fact that this is something that we as a government need to support New Zealanders in as we come through what is a really tough global environment”.

She added: “The Budget came at a time when we’ve got some really critical issues to address, we need to provide greater economic security for New Zealand, and that’s what the Budget was all about.

“We know we won’t be able to solve all the impacts that global inflationary pressures are creating at the moment, but that $350 payment for people on low and middle incomes, making sure we’re keeping public transport cheaper, extending the reduction in the cost of fuel, all of those things are designed to make a difference as we come through that period.”

National’s Christopher Luxon said the key is “making sure the National Party is really focused, we’re externally focused on what matters most to New Zealanders. At the moment that is the cost of living crisis.”

Asked if he was concerned that National was stagnating, Luxon said the party, which had four new leaders in two years, has had “real momentum over the last six months”.

“National has a very good economic plan to be able to deal and fight for Kiwis in terms of the cost of living crisis and what you’re seeing is a Government that does band aid economics, more spending, more bureaucracy, worse outcomes.”

Green Party co-leader James Shaw said he thought people could see the work they were doing in Government.

Green Party co-leader James Shaw.
Green Party co-leader James Shaw. (Source: 1News)

“Over the course of the last 18 months, people have seen us consistently working hard as part of this Government to deliver on family and sexual violence, on climate change, on nature, on housing, on inequality, and they’re rewarding us with their support.”

ACT leader David Seymour said the results showed that New Zealand was “edging closer to a change of government where ACT plays a significant role, to make sure it’s not just a change of government, but a change of thinking”.

ACT leader David Seymour.
ACT leader David Seymour. (Source: 1News)

READ: the March 1News Kantar Public Poll.

Between May 21-25, 2022, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online (501). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For party support and preferred Prime Minister, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, education level and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.

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