Reserve Bank to maintain monetary policy in face of mixed results for economy in June

'Oku 'i lalo ha fakamatala faka-Tonga

Despite slower economic activity in June, the National Reserve Bank will maintain its current  monetary policy.

The Governor of the Reserve Bank, Sione Ngongo Kioa, said the total export volume of agricultural products declined.

Consumption also fell and the Consumption Tax collected over the month declined in line with a fall in total business sales.

Electricity consumption declined, which indicated a slowdown in economic activities.

Elsewhere, economic indicators of the tertiary sector were mixed over the month with prominent results from the banking sector reflected in the banking system’s improving profitability.

Travel receipts increased, despite a fall in total air arrivals as the number of international dropped.

The total number of container registrations also declined over the month.

Imported prices increased due to higher prices of imported meat, fuel and tobacco.

The amount of reserve money in the banking system increased over June.

The level of foreign reserves rose to $468.7 million in June 2018 due mainly to receipts of cyclone relief funds and other project funds.

The level of foreign reserves is expected to remain at comfortable levels and inflation is anticipated to fall below the Reserve Bank’s inflation reference rate of 5% per annum at the end of 2018.

In light of the economic situation the Reserve Bank will maintain the monetary policy rate at zero percent; keep the minimum loans/deposit ratio of 80%; maintain the Statutory Reserve Deposit ratio at 10%  and maintain the inflation reference rate at  five percent.

1 COMMENT

  1. Tu’utu’uni ki he Fokotu’utu’u Ngāue Fakapa’anga

    Na’e tali ‘e he Poate ‘a e kau Talēkita ‘a e Pangikē Pule Fakafonua ‘o Tonga´ hili ‘enau fakataha ‘i he ‘aho 17 ‘o ‘Aokosi 2018, ke kei hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e ngaahi tu’utu’uni ngāue fakapa’anga lolotonga ‘a ia ‘oku hā atu ‘i lalo´.

    ‘Oku fakataumu’a eni ke ngāue’aki ‘a e hulu ‘i he pa’anga ngāue ‘a e ngaahi pangikē, ‘o fakafou mai ‘i hono tuku atu ‘a e ngaahi nō ki tu’a ke ne faka’ai’ai mo pātoloaki ‘a e tupu faka’ekonōmika ‘a e fonua´ pea mo tokoni ki he fakaakeake meiˊhe saikolone fakatalopiki ko Gita (Tropical Cyclone Gita).
    a.

    Ke kei hoko atu pē hono ta’etotongi ha tupu (interest) ‘i he ngaahi ‘akauni pa’anga ngāue ‘a e ngaahi pangike´
    (Exchange Settlement Account) ‘oku fakahū ‘i he Pangikē Pule´ (zero interest rate policy);
    e. Ke ‘oua ‘e toe ma’ulalo hifo ‘i he peseti ‘e 80 ‘a e lahi e ngaahi nō ‘oku tuku atu ‘e he ngaahi pangikē ‘o fakahoa ki he lahi ‘o ‘enau ngaahi fakahū pa’anga´ (loans/deposit ratio);
    f. Ke kei tauhi pē ‘a e lahi ‘o e pa’anga ‘a e ngaahi pangikē fakakomēsiale, ‘a ia ‘oku tu’utu’uni fakalao ke tauhi ‘i he
    Pangikē Pule´ (Statutory Reserve Deposit) ‘i he peseti ‘e 10; pea
    h. Ke tu’uma’u pē ‘a e faka’amu ki he hikihiki e totongi ‘o e ngaahi koloa´ (inflation reference rate) ‘i he peseti ‘e 5.

    Na’e fakahā ‘e he Kōvana ‘o e Pangikē Pule´, Sione Ngongo Kioa, na’e māmālie ange ‘a e tupu ‘a e ngaahi ngāue faka’ekonōmika´ ‘i he lolotonga ‘o e māhina ko Sune´. Na’e fetō’aki e ngaahi me’afua ‘i he sekitoa ki he ngoue´, toutai´ pea mo e vao ‘akau´ (primary sector), ‘a ia na’e holo ‘a hono uta atu e ngoue ki muli´, kā na’e kei lahi pē ‘a e ngaahi me’akai fakalotofonua´ ‘o hā eni mei he holo ‘a e totongi ‘o e me’akai fakalotofonua ´.

    ‘Oku hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e tupu ‘a e ngaahi ngāue ‘i he sekitoa ‘o e fakatupu koloa´ (secondary sector) ‘o hā mai ‘i he hokohoko ‘i he ngaahi ngaue langa´, tupu ‘i he nō langa fale taautaha´ pea pehē ki he nō langa fale fakapisinisi´.

    Na’e holo ‘a hono ngāue’aki ‘e he kakai´ ‘a e ma‘u‘anga ‘uhila´ ‘o hā mahino mei ai ‘a e holo e ngaahi ngāue faka’ekonōmika´. Na’e fetō’aki e ngaahi me’afua ‘i he sekitoa ki he ngaahi ngāue´ (tertiary industry) ‘i he lolotonga e māhina kā na’e ola lelei e sekitoa fakapangikē, ‘o hā ia mei he hokohoko lelei e tupu ‘a e ngaahi pangikē.

    Na’e kake ‘a e pa’anga hū mai mei he fefolau’aki´, neongo na’e holo e tokolahi ‘a e kakai ne tu‘uta vakapuna mai ki Tongaˊni mei tu‘apule‘anga´. Na’e fenāpasi eni mo e holo ‘i he lahi e vakapuna ne tu’uta mai ki Tonga ni ‘i he lolotonga ‘o e māhina´.

    Na’e toe holo mo e lahi e koniteina na’e lēsisita ‘i he māhina´.

    Na’e holo mo e ngaahi fiema’u´/ fengāue’aki´ (consumption activities) ‘i Sune 2018 fakahoa ki Mē 2018. Neongo na’e tupu ‘a e ngaahi nō taautaha´ pea tufa atu ‘e he Pule’anga´ ‘a e tokoni ki he ngaahi famili ne uesia ‘e he saikolone´, ka na’e ha mai ‘a e holo ‘i he pa’anga hū mai mei he tukuhau ngāue’aki´ (Consumption Tax) ‘o fenāpasi ia mo e holo ‘i he pa’anga hū mai mei he fakatau ‘a e ngaahi pisinisi´.

    Kā neongo ia, na’e ‘i he tu’unga mālohi pē ‘a e ngaahi fiema’u´ ‘i he lolotonga ‘a e ta’u´.

    Na’e fenāpasi pē ‘a e lahi e pa’anga hū mai mei he tukuhau ngāue’aki´ pea mo e pa’anga ne ma’u mei he fakatau ‘a e ngaahi pisinisi ‘i he lolotonga ‘a e ta’u´. Na’e tupu ‘a e talafi pa’anga mei muli´ mo e ngaahi nō taautaha´ ‘a ia ne tokoni eni ki he toe lahi ange ‘a e ngaahi fakamole ‘a e kakai´.

    ‘Oku fakafuofua ‘e toe lahi ange ‘a e ngaahi fakamole´ ‘i he kaha’u´ ‘o tokoni’i ‘e he ngaahi nō fo’ou fakataautaha´ pea pehē ki he fakafuofua ‘e hokohoko atu ‘a e kake ‘i he talafi pa’anga mei muli´.

    ‘Oku kei ‘i he tu‘unga lelei pe ‘a e fai fatongia ‘a e ngaahi pangikē fakakomēsiale´, ‘o makatu‘unga meiˊhe tu‘unga fakafiemālie ‘a ‘enau tupu´ (profitability) pea pehē ki he kei ‘i he tu‘unga ma‘ulalo ai pē ‘a e ngaahi nō ‘oku palopalema´.

    Na‘e hiki hake ‘a e pa‘anga ngāue (liquidity) ‘a e ngaahi pangikē ‘i Sune´ ‘o fenāpasi mo e tupu ‘a e ngaahi fakahū pa’anga´ ‘o ne fakatupunga ai ‘a e kake ‘a e pa’anga kuo tu’utu’uni ke tauhi ‘i he Pangikē Pule´ (required reserve) pea mo e holo ‘i he lahi ‘o e ngaahi nō ‘i hono fakahoa ki he lahi ‘o e ngaahi fakahū pa‘anga´ (loans/deposit ratio).

    ‘Oku kei ma’ulalo pē ‘eni ‘i he tu’unga kuo tu’utu’uni ‘e he Pangikē Pule´ ke a’usia ‘e he ngaahi pangikē, ‘a ia ko e peseti ‘e 80. ‘Oku hā mahino mei heni ‘a e kei ‘i ai pē ‘a e faingamālie ke toe fakalahi ‘a e ngaahi nō ke tuku atu ‘e he ngaahi pangikē.

    ‘I he ta‘uˊ ki Sune 2018, na‘e kake ‘a e fakahū pa‘anga pea mo e nō, ‘o hā mei ai ‘oku ngāue ‘a e ngaahi fokotu‘utu‘u ngāue ‘a e ngaahi pangikē ke fakafaingofua‘i ‘a hono ngaue‘aki ‘a e ngaahi ngāue fakapa‘anga΄. Na‘e toe lahiange ‘a e ngaahi feitu‘u ‘oku malava ke ma‘u mei ai ‘a e ngaahi ngāue fakapa‘anga (access points) ‘a ia ‘oku mahino mei ai ‘oku faingofua ange ki he kakai ke fakahoko ‘enau ngaahi ngaue fakapa’anga΄.

    Na’e kake ‘a e hulu ‘i he ‘avalisi ‘o e totongi tupu ‘i he nō mo e ‘avalisi ‘o e totongi tupu ‘i he fakahū pa’anga´ (weighted average interest rate spread) ‘i Sune ‘o makatu‘unga meiˊhe kake ‘i he ‘avalisi ‘o e totongi tupu ‘i he nō (weighted average lending rate) pea mo e holo ‘i he ‘avalisi ‘o e totongi tupu fakahū pa’anga (weighted average deposit rate).

    Na‘e tupu ‘a e pa’anga talifaki ‘i muli´ (foreign reserves) ki he $468.7 miliona ‘i Sune 2018, makatu‘unga meiˊ he lahiange ‘a e pa’anga hū mai tokoni ki he saikolone´ pea mo e ngaahi pa’anga polōseki´.

    ‘Oku fe‘unga ‘a e tu‘unga lolotonga ‘o e pa‘anga talifaki´ pea mo e māhina ‘e 7.8 ‘o e koloa mo e ngaahi ngāue hū mai mei muliˊ.

    Na’e kei hoko pē ‘a e holo ‘i he totongi ‘o e me’akai´ ke ne tokoni’i ‘a e holo ‘a e hikihiki ‘i he totongi fakalūkufua ‘o e koloa´.

    Na’e hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e holo ‘i he totongi fakalūkufua ‘o e ngaahi koloa fakata’u´ ‘o ofi ki he tu’unga fe’unga kuo tuku mai ‘e he Pangikē Pule´, ‘a ia ko e peseti ‘e 5. Ko e holo eni ki he peseti ‘e 5.9 ‘o fakahoa ki he peseti ‘e 9.4 ‘i he mahina kuo’osi´ pea peseti ‘e 10.7 ‘i Sune 2017.

    Na’e makatu’unga eni mei he fe’unuaki ‘i he totongi fakalotofonua ‘o e me’akai´, ‘a ia ko e tupu fakata’u ki Sune 2018 na’e ma’ulalo ange ia ‘i he tupu fakata’u ‘i Mē 2018. Na‘e hiki ‘a e totongi koloa hū mai mei muli΄ ‘o makatu‘unga mei he hiki hake ‘a e totongi ‘o e kakano’i manu hū mai mei muli΄, totongi lolo΄ pea mo e sikaleti΄. Na‘e hiki ‘a e totongi koloa fakalotofonua΄ makatu’unga mei he hikihiki ‘a e ngaahi koloa me’akai´, kava-Tonga pea mo e loli makamaka fakatau΄.

    Neongo ‘a e māmālie ange ‘a e tupu ‘a e ngaahi ngāue faka’ekonōmika´ ‘i he lolotonga ‘o e māhina ko Sune´, na’e kei ha mai ‘oku kei ‘I he tu’unga fakafiemalie pe ‘o fenapasi ia mo e fakafuofua ‘e tupu mā’olunga ‘a e tu’unga faka’ekonōmika ‘a e fonua´ ‘i he 2017/18, kā ‘e ala uesia ‘a e fakafuofua ko ‘eni´ mei he ngaahi feliliuaki e ‘ea´.

    Fakatatau ki he fakamatala fakamuimuitaha kuo tuku mai ‘e he Tafa’aki Talamatangi ‘a Tonga, ‘oku fakafuofua ‘e ma’ulalo ange ‘a e ‘uha´ ‘i he ‘avalisi ‘i ‘Aokosi ki ‘Okatopa 2018 pea ‘e toe ma’ulalo ange ‘i he ‘avalisi´ ki Tonga ni kātoa mei Nōvema ki Sanuali 2019. ‘E ala uesia heni e ngaahi ngāue ‘i he sekitoa ngoue´ mo e toutai´ pea pehē foki ki he ngaahi sekitoa kehekehe pē ‘i he kaha’u´.

    Ko e pa‘anga talifaki ‘i mulí ‘oku fakafuofua ‘e kei ‘i he tu’unga fakafiemālie pē. ‘Oku toe fakafuofua ‘e ‘i he tu’unga ma’ulalo pē ‘a e hikihiki ‘i he totongi koloaˊ pea ‘e ma’ulalo pē ia ‘i he tu’unga fe’unga (reference rate) ko e pēseti ‘e 5 ‘i he faka’osinga ‘o e 2018. ‘Oku hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e tu’unga fakafiemālie ‘a e ngaahi pangikē.

    Koe’uhī ko e ngaahi fakamatala ko ‘eni´, ‘e hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e ngaahi tu’utu’uni ngāue fakapa’anga lolotonga´.

    Pea ‘e kei hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e tokanga ‘a e Pangikē Pule´ ki hono siofi mo muimui’i ofi e ngaahi fakalakalaka faka’ekonōmika fakalotofonua´ mo tu’apule’anga´, mo tu’u mateuteu ke liliu ‘a e ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ngāue fakapa’anga ‘o ka fiema’u pea mo fakapapau’i ‘e ‘ikai ke kaunga kovi ‘a e ngaahi fakalakalaka ‘oku hoko´ ki he tupu faka’ekonōmika ‘oku ma’uma’uluta mo tolongaˊ.

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