National Reserve Bank assesses state of economy in aftermath of Cyclone Gita

    Vakai ki lalo ki he ngata'anga 'o e pēsi' ni 'oku 'i ai ha fakamatala faka-Tonga ai mei he Pangikē Pule'.

    Cyclone Gita has had a major impact on Tonga’s economy.

    According to the National Reserve Bank it will reduce financial growth in the short term, but will also boost foreign reserves.

    The Governor of the Reserve Bank, Dr. Sione Ngongo Kioa told the bank’s board of directors’ meeting earlier this month that domestic economic activities in February 2018 were affected by the devastation by tropical cyclone Gita.

    Kioa said this would also be reflected in the economic activities of upcoming months.

    Foreign reserves increased to $448 million in February 2018, driven by higher receipts of Government grants and cyclone relief funds from development partners and insurance payouts.

    Economic indicators were mixed.  Agricultural exports declined, mainly driven by the decrease in the volume of root crops such as cassava and giant taro. Exported marine products, particularly tuna, rose.

    Individual housing and business construction loans remained positive despite the decline in business manufacturing loans.

    However, container registrations decreased as both business and private containers fell. Vehicle registrations for cars and other light vehicles also fell. There was also decline in air arrivals.

    The Reserve Bank said foreign aid and higher levels of remittance meant levels of foreign reserves would remain at comfortable levels.

    The Bank warned that this would be offset by the beginning of the government’s repayment of the principal loan to China’s Export-Import Bank.

    The Bank’s board of directors said it would maintain its current monetary policy measures of encouraging further lending to the growth sectors, in order to support economic growth and the recovery from Tropical Cyclone Gita.

    The Economist Intelligence Unit predicted that reconstruction work would boost economic activity in Tonga into next year. However, this would be  offset by the loss of crops and a fall-of in tourism.

    The International Monetary Fund said economic damage from Cyclone Gita equalled about 30 percent of GDP, particularly in the agriculture and tourism sectors.

    The main points

    • Cyclone Gita has had a major impact on Tonga’s economy.
    • According to the National Reserve Bank it will reduce financial growth in the short term, but will also boost foreign reserves.
    • The Governor of the Reserve Bank, Sione Ngongo Kioa told the bank’s board of directors’ meeting earlier this month that domestic economic activities in February 2018 were affected by the devastation by tropical cyclone Gita.

    For more information

    Cyclone Gita devastates Tonga (The Economist)

    Asia and Pacific Small States Monitor (IMF)

    1 COMMENT

    1. Na’e uesia lahi ‘e he saikolone ko Kita’ ‘a e ‘ekonōmika ‘a Tonga’. Fakatatau ki he Pangikē Pule Fakafonua’ te ne tukuhifo ‘e ia e tupu fakapa’anga’ ‘i ha taimi nounou ka ‘e hoko ia ke tupulaki ai ‘a e pa’anga mohe’ ia.

      Tu’utu’uni ki he Fokotu’utu’u Ngāue Fakapa’anga

      Na’e tali ‘e he Poate ‘a e kau Talēkita ‘a e Pangikē Pule Fakafonua ‘o Tonga ́ hili ‘enau fakataha ‘i he ‘aho 11 ‘o ‘Epeleli 2018, ke kei hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e ngaahi tu’utu’uni ngāue fakapa’anga lolotonga ́ ‘a ia ‘oku hā atu ‘i lalo ́. ‘Oku fakataumu’a eni ke ngāue’aki ‘a e hulu ‘i he pa’anga ngāue ‘a e ngaahi pangikē, ‘o fakafou mai ‘i hono tuku atu ‘a e ngaahi nō ki tu’a ke ne faka’ai’ai mo pātoloaki ‘a e tupu faka’ekonōmika ‘a e fonua ́ pea mo tokoni ki he fakaakeake mei he Saikolone ko Gita (Tropical Cyclone Gita).

      a. Ke kei hoko atu pē hono ta’etotongi ha tupu (interest) ‘i he ngaahi ‘akauni pa’anga ngāue ‘a e ngaahi pangike ́ (Exchange Settlement Account) ‘oku fakahū ‘i he Pangikē Pule ́ (zero interest rate policy);
      e. Ke ‘oua ‘e toe ma’ulalo hifo ‘i he peseti ‘e 80 ‘a e lahi e ngaahi nō ‘oku tuku atu ‘e he ngaahi pangikē ‘o fakahoa ki he lahi ‘o ‘enau ngaahi fakahū pa’anga ́ (loans/deposit ratio);
      f. Ke kei tauhi pē ‘a e lahi ‘o e pa’anga ‘a e ngaahi pangikē fakakomēsiale, ‘a ia ‘oku tu’utu’uni fakalao ke tauhi ‘i he Pangikē Pule ́ (Statutory Reserve Deposit) ‘i he peseti ‘e 10; pea
      h. Ke tu’uma’u pē ‘a e faka’amu ki he hikihiki e totongi ‘o e ngaahi koloa ́ (inflation reference rate) ‘i he peseti ‘e 5.

      Na’e fakahā ‘e he Kōvana ‘o e Pangikē Pule ́, Sione Ngongo Kioa, na’e uesia ‘a e ngaahi ngāue faka’ekonōmika ‘i Fepueli 2018. Na’e makatu’unga eni mei he maumau na’e fakahoko ‘e he Saikolone ko Gita ́ pea ‘e hā ia ‘i he ngaahi ngāue faka’ekonōmika ‘i he ngaahi māhina ka hoko ́. Kaekehe na’e fetō’aki ‘a e ngaahi me’afua faka’ekonōmika ́ ‘i he lolotonga ‘o e māhina ́. Na‘e holo ‘a e lahi ‘o e ngoue ne uta atu ki tu‘apule‘anga ́ ‘o makatu‘unga mei he holo ‘a hono uta atu ‘o e ngoue foha ́ ‘o hangē ko e manioke ́ pea mo e kape ́.

      Na’e kake ‘a e lahi ‘o e toutai na’e uta ki tu’apule’anga ́ (‘ikai ke kau ki ai ‘a e ngaahi me’atahi ‘ikai ko ha ika – aquarium products) ‘o fakatupunga ia meiˊhe toe lahi ange ‘a hono hū atu e tuna ́. Na’e tu’unga fakafiemālie pē ‘a e ngaahi ngāue ‘i he sekitoa ‘o e fakatupu koloa ́ (secondary sector), tupu meiˊhe toe lahi ange ‘a e nō kuo tuku atu ki he langa fale taautaha ́ pea mo e nō kuo tuku atu ki he ngaahi pisinisi langa ́ neongo na’e holo ‘a e nō kuo tuku atu ki he ngaahi pisinisi ‘oku nau fa’u koloaˊ (manufacturing).

      ‘I he sekitoa ki he ngaahi ngāue ́ (tertiary sector), na’e tupu ‘a e ngaahi nō kuo tuku atu ́ ‘i he lolotonga ‘a e māhina ́. Kā neongo ia, na’e holo ‘a e lahi ‘o e ngaahi koniteina na’e lesisita ́ tupu meiˊhe holo ‘a e ngaahi koniteina fakapisinisi ́ mo e taautaha ́. Na’e holo mo e lesisita ‘o e me’alele ́ makatu’unga mei he si’isi’i ange ‘a hono lesisita ‘o e kā mo e ngaahi me’alele iikiˊ (light vehicles). Na’e toe holo mo e tokolahi ‘o e kakai
      ne tu‘uta vakapuna mai ki Tongaˊni mei tu‘apule‘anga ́.

      ‘Oku kei ‘i he tu‘unga lelei ‘aupito ‘a e fai fatongia ‘a e ngaahi pangikē fakakomēsiale ́, ‘o makatu‘unga meiˊhe tu‘unga fakafiemālie ‘a ‘enau tupu ́ (profitability) pea pehē ki he kei ‘i he tu‘unga ma‘ulalo ai pē ‘a e ngaahi nō ‘oku palopalema ́. Na‘e kake ‘a e pa‘anga ngāue (liquidity) ‘a e ngaahi pangikē ‘i Fepueli ́, makatu’unga meiˊhe tupu ‘a e pa’anga ‘oku lolotonga ngāue’aki ́ (currency in circulation).

      Na’e makatu’unga eni meiˊhe toe lahi ange ‘a e toho pa‘anga ‘a e ngaahi pangikē mei he Pangikē Pule ́, ke feau ‘a e fiema’u ‘a e kakai ‘o e fonua ́ ki he pa’anga ́. Na’e tu’uma’u pē ‘a e lahi ‘o e ngaahi nō (kau ki heni ‘a e polokalama nō ‘a e pule’anga ́) ‘i hono fakahoa ki he lahi ‘o e ngaahi fakahū pa‘anga ́ (loans/deposit ratio) ‘i Fepueli, ‘o makatu’unga eni meiˊhe tupu tatau pē ‘i he ngaahi fakahū pa‘anga ́mo e ngaahi nō kuo tuku atu ́. Na’e holo si’i e lahi ‘o e ngaahi nō (‘ikai kau ki ai ‘a e polokalama nō ‘a e pule’anga ́) ‘i hono fakahoa ki he lahi ‘o e ngaahi fakahū pa‘anga ́ (loans/deposit ratio) ‘i Fepueli. ‘Oku kei ma’ulalo pē ‘eni ‘i he tu’unga kuo tu’utu’uni ‘e he Pangikē Pule ́ ke a’usia ‘e he ngaahi pangikē, ‘a ia ko e peseti ‘e 80. ‘Oku hā mahino mei heni ‘a e kei ‘i ai pē ‘a e faingamālie ke toe fakalahi ‘a e ngaahi nō ke tuku atu ‘e he ngaahi pangikē.

      Na’e kake ‘a e hulu ‘i he ‘avalisi ‘o e totongi tupu ‘i he nō mo e ‘avalisi ‘o e totongi tupu ‘i he fakahū pa’anga ́ (weighted average interest rate spread) ‘i Fepueli. Na‘e makatu‘unga eni mei he kake ‘a e ‘avalisi ‘o e totongi tupu ‘i he nō (weighted average lending rate) ‘i hono fakahoa ki he holo ‘a e ‘avalisi ‘o e totongi tupu fakahū pa’anga ́ (weighted average deposit rate).

      Na‘e tupu ‘a e pa’anga talifaki ‘i muli ́ (foreign reserves) ‘o a’u ki he $448.0 miliona ‘i Fepueli 2018, makatu‘unga meiˊhe lahi ‘o e ngaahi pa’anga tokoni ‘a e Pule’anga ́ na’e hū mai, pa’anga tokoni ki he saikolone ́ pea pehē ki hono totongi mai ‘o e ngaahi pa’anga malu’i ́(insurance payouts). ‘Oku fe‘unga ‘a e tu‘unga lolotonga ‘o e pa‘anga talifaki ́ pea mo e māhina ‘e 8.11 ‘o e koloa mo e ngaahi ngāue hū mai mei muliˊ. ‘Oku kei ma’olunga pē eni ‘i he tu’unga ma’ulalo taha ‘oku fiema’u ‘e he Pangikē Pule ́, ‘a ia ko e māhina ‘e 3 ki he 4 ‘o e koloa mo e ngaahi ngāue hū mai mei muli ́.

      ‘Oku te’eki ke tuku mai ‘e he Potungāue Sitētisitika ́ (Statistics Department) ‘a e fika ‘ofisiale ki he hikihiki ‘i he totongi fakalūkufua ‘o e koloa ́. ‘Oku fakafuofua ‘e kei hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e hikihiki ‘i he totongi koloaˊ ‘i he kaha’u vave maiˊ, makatu’unga mei he uesia ‘o e me’akai fakalotofonua ́ ‘e he Saikolone ko Gita ́.

      ‘Oku fakafuofua ko e hiki ‘i he totongi ‘o e fua’i’akau ́ mo e vesitapolo ́ tene fakatupunga:

      1. Na’e fakahoko ‘a e liliu ki he founga hono fika’i eni ́, ke fakakau ‘a hono hū mai ‘a e koloa ́ pea mo e ngaahi ngāue mei muli ́. Ko e founga ne ngāue’aki ‘i he ngaahi lipooti kimu’a ́ ne fakakau pē ‘a hono hū mai ‘a e koloa ‘ata’atā pē

      ‘i he māhina kuo’osi ́. Ko e hikihiki ko ‘eni ́ ‘oku makatu’unga ia mei he fakafuofua ‘e toe lahiange ‘a e tupu ‘i he totongi ‘o e me’akaiˊ, fefononga’akiˊ, kava-malohiˊ (alcohol) pea mo e kava-Tongaˊ.
      ‘Oku kei tu‘uma‘u pē ‘a e fakafuofua ‘a e Pangikē Pule ́ ‘e tupu mālohi ‘a e tu‘unga totonu ‘o e tupu faka‘ekonōmika ‘i he kaha’u ́ ‘i he’ene Fakamatala Fokotu‘utu‘u Ngāue Fakapa‘anga ‘o ‘Aokosi 2017. ‘Oku fakafuofua ‘e holo ‘a e tupu faka‘ekonōmika ki he 2017/18 ‘o makatu’unga meiˊhe uesia na’e fakahoko ‘e he Saikolone ko Gita ́, kā ‘oku fakafuofua ‘e tupu ma’olunga ‘i he 2018/19.

      Ko e pa‘anga talifaki ‘i mulí ‘oku fakafuofua ‘e kei ‘i he tu’unga fakafiemālie pē. ‘Oku makatu’unga eni meiˊhe fakafuofua ‘e kei ‘i he tu’unga mā’olunga ai pē ‘a e ngaahi talafi pa’anga mei mulí pea pehē ki he pa’anga tokoni meiˊhe ngaahi hoa ngāue langa fakalakalaká, neongo ‘e ala uesia ‘a e fakafuofua ko ‘eni ́ mei he fakafuofua ‘e toe lahi ange mo e totongi ‘o e koloa hū mai mei mulí. Ko e kamata ‘a hono tā fakafoki ‘a e nō ‘a e Pule’anga ́ mei he Pangikē Fefakatau’aki ‘a Siainá (EXIM Bank of China) te ne ala uesia ‘a e fakafuofua ko ‘eni ́.

      ‘Oku toe fakafuofua ‘e kei hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e hikihiki ‘i he totongi koloaˊ ‘i he kaha’u vave maiˊ pea ‘e lahi hake ‘i he tu’unga fe’unga ko e pēseti ‘e 5 ‘i he fakafuofua ‘a e Pangikē Puleˊ (reference rate) ‘i he 2018. Ka neongo iaˊ ‘oku malava ke uesia ‘a e ngaahi fakafuofua ko ’eniˊ mei he feliliuaki ‘o e ‘ea ́, pea mo ha toe ma’olunga ange ‘a e totongi koloa hū mai mei mulí.

      Na‘e aofangatuku ‘e he Kovana ́, ‘e kei hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e tokanga ‘a e Pangikē Puleˊ ki hono siofi mo muimui‘i ofi e ngaahi fakalakalaka faka’ekonōmika fakalotofonuaˊ mo tu‘apule‘angaˊ, mo tu‘u mateuteu ke liliu ‘a e ngaahi fokotu‘utu‘u ngāue fakapa‘angaˊ ‘o ka fiema’u, ke tauhi e ma’uma’uluta ‘a e tu’unga fakapa’angaˊ pea pehē ki he malu mo lelei ‘o e tafa’aki fakapa’angaˊ, pea mo fakapapau’i ‘e ‘ikai ke toe kaunga kovi ‘a e ngaahi fakalakalaka ‘oku hoko ́ ki he tupu faka’ekonōmika ‘oku ma’uma’uluta mo tolongaˊ.

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